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"unit": "单季 / 亿元", "categories": [ "第一季度", "第二季度", "第三季度" ], "series": [ { "name": "2025年", "values": [ -2.86623305, 30.9514806271, 19.0558601319 ] }, { "name": "2026年", "values": [ -15.1428339701, 21.0539298881, -35.1064812591 ] } ] }, { "id": "balance", "title": "营运资金的变化", "type": "bars", "unit": "期末 / 亿元", "categories": [ "存货", "应付账款", "应收账款", "合同负债" ], "series": [ { "name": "2025年末", "values": [ 130.5821891499, 278.2876588455, 312.4986427602, 78.0696836765 ] }, { "name": "2026年9月末", "values": [ 170.0901306126, 224.7531102678, 303.1486798238, 79.936029663 ] } ] }, { "id": "segment-margins", "type": "bars", "title": "主要业务板块毛利率对照", "unit": "半年毛利率 / %", "categories": [ "电网智能", "能源低碳", "数能融合" ], "series": [ { "name": "2025年上半年", "values": [ 30.34, 21.59, 23.4 ] }, { "name": "2026年上半年", "values": [ 29.9, 18.64, 25.55 ] } ] } ], "levels": [ [ 22.2, "22.20 财报日低点" ], [ 22.86, "22.86 近期60日线" ], [ 24.0, "24.00 近期高点" ] ], "scenarios": [ { "name": "压力", "profit": [ 75, 84 ], "pe": [ 16, 19 ], "prices": [ 14.940692629264628, 19.871121196921955 ] }, { "name": "基准", "profit": [ 90, 100 ], "pe": [ 19, 22 ], "prices": [ 21.290486996702093, 27.391269820318485 ] }, { "name": "乐观", "profit": [ 105, 115 ], "pe": [ 23, 26 ], "prices": [ 30.068143916395062, 37.22722580125103 ] } ], "calc": [ 65, 125, 95, 12, 30, 20 ], "valuation": { "basisLabel": "归母净利润", "basisUnit": "亿元", "periodLabel": "2027年", "basisStep": 1 }, "profitLabel": "以10月底总股本80.3176亿股估算2027年盈利兑现时的每股价格", "heroMetric": { "label": "归母 PE · TTM", "value": 22.547732611824948, "note": "按10月底总股本与最近四季归母利润估算" }, "methods": [ "2023、2024年的历史比较采用2025年年报追溯调整后的数值。2026年第二季度由半年累计数减第一季度，第三季度经营现金流由前三季累计数减半年数。各单季合计与累计数核对。", "归母或扣非 PE（TTM）＝收盘价 × 总股本 ÷ 最近四个季度相应利润。总股本含回购专户股份，与基本每股收益使用的加权平均股数不同。过去12个月股息率按已实施的每股税前分红除以本次收盘价计算。", "个股日线采用腾讯前复权价，成交量由手换算为股，末20个交易日逐日与新浪的股数和开高低收核对。归一化比较以共同交易日收盘为准。五日涨跌比较当日与五个交易日前的收盘。" ], "sources": [ { "title": "国电南瑞《2026年第三季度报告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-10-29/1225635689.PDF", "note": "营业收入、归母与扣非利润、合并利润表、资产负债表及现金流量表。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《2026年半年度报告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-27/1225508099.PDF", "note": "产品毛利、地区收入、新签合同及半年累计财务数据。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《2026年第一季度报告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-30/1225257868.PDF", "note": "一季度归母、扣非归母及经营现金流，用于拆算单季。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《2025年年度报告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-30/1225257886.PDF", "note": "三年可比数据、分季度指标、期末在手订单和2026年经营目标。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞第三季度业绩说明会记录（11月3日）", "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12690658&stockid=600406", "note": "管理层关于业务组合、汇兑损益、项目交付和资金回笼的说明。" }, { "title": "国家电网“十五五”投资计划 · 国务院国资委", "url": "https://wap.sasac.gov.cn/n4470048/n35313464/n35346844/n35346859/c35325777/content.html", "note": "电网建设投资规划，只作行业需求背景。" }, { "title": "腾讯证券 · 国电南瑞日线", "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh600406,day,2025-08-01,2026-11-10,600,qfq", "note": "前复权日线、近期区间、均线与成交量。" }, { "title": "腾讯证券 · 沪深300日线", "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,2025-08-01,2026-11-10,600,qfq", "note": "同期市场基准，以日收盘点位归一。" }, { "title": "新浪财经 · 国电南瑞日线", "url": "https://quotes.sina.cn/cn/api/jsonp_v2.php/var%20_data=/CN_MarketDataService.getKLineData?symbol=sh600406&scale=240&ma=no&datalen=20", "note": "最近20个交易日的开高低收及成交股数核对。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《集中竞价交易方式股份回购进展公告》", "url": "https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12686808&stockid=600406", "note": "截至10月底的股份总数与本轮回购进度，11月3日披露。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《2025年年度权益分派实施公告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-24/1225383654.PDF", "note": "2026年6月实施的每股现金分红。" }, { "title": "国电南瑞《2026年半年度权益分派实施公告》", "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-09-22/1225575117.PDF", "note": "2026年9月实施的每股现金分红。" } ], "valuationMethod": "三种情景均为作者对2027完整年度利润、业务结构和市场倍数的假设。区间两端分别使用各组假设的低值及高值组合，没有纳入股息、时间折现或未来股本变化。" }