{
  "fxKey": "cnyHkd",
  "period": "FY2028（截至2028年3月）",
  "basisUnit": "人民币/股",
  "heroMetric": {
    "label": "FY2028基准EPS隐含PE",
    "value": 13.732055572969259,
    "note": "作者正常化EPS假设6.5元人民币；已换算港元，非历史PE"
  },
  "profitLabel": "FY2028正常化稀释EPS（人民币/港股普通股），保留股权激励；1 ADS=8普通股，本文不使用ADS价格",
  "methods": {
    "currency": "财务金额为人民币，股价及情景估值为港元；港币柜台普通股口径，不能与人民币柜台价格或美股ADS直接混用。",
    "financial": "财务数据来自公司业绩公告、年报及中期报告；年度、半年度和单季度分别标记。非IFRS/非GAAP调整后利润与报告利润不能互换，正常化盈利为作者假设。",
    "market": "行情固定于2026-11-06完整收盘，采用Yahoo日线、不计现金分红；近10日价格与StockAnalysis核对。成交量存在最多0.16%的汇总差异，全文统一Yahoo口径。11月6日最低价两源分别为103.90和104.00港元，图表保留Yahoo的103.90港元；收盘价一致。",
    "cash": "简化FCF为经营现金流减现金购置或预付长期资产；未自动扣除租赁、并购、分红和回购。公司自定义FCF、非现金资本开支与现金付款另行标明。",
    "valuation": "FY2028（截至2028年3月）作者假设正常化稀释EPS×PE×固定汇率1.175240（2026-11-05参考快照）=每股港元估值。输入每股指标后不再除总股数；情景不是概率、公司指引或最大损失边界。"
  },
  "sector": "电商、云计算与AI平台",
  "shares": 19324000000,
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "投入承压",
      "eps": [
        3,
        4
      ],
      "pe": [
        12,
        15
      ],
      "prices": [
        42.30864143371582,
        70.51440238952637
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "平衡",
      "eps": [
        6,
        7
      ],
      "pe": [
        16,
        20
      ],
      "prices": [
        112.82304382324219,
        164.53360557556152
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "兑现",
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        9,
        11
      ],
      "pe": [
        22,
        26
      ],
      "prices": [
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        336.1186513900757
      ]
    }
  ],
  "calc": [
    2,
    12,
    6.5,
    10,
    30,
    18
  ],
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    [
      102.6,
      "102.6 短期均线"
    ],
    [
      108.7,
      "108.7 中期均线"
    ],
    [
      88.7,
      "88.7 近期低区"
    ]
  ],
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    {
      "id": "annual",
      "title": "收入韧性尚在，经营利润受投入压缩",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "categories": [
        "FY2024",
        "FY2025",
        "FY2026"
      ],
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          "name": "营业利润",
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          ]
        },
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          "name": "普通股净利润",
          "values": [
            79.741,
            129.47,
            105.904
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "quarter",
      "title": "收入增长没有同步转成股东盈利",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "categories": [
        "2025六月季",
        "2026六月季"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "收入",
          "values": [
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        },
        {
          "name": "调整后EBITA",
          "values": [
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        },
        {
          "name": "普通股净利润",
          "values": [
            43.116,
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          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "commerce",
      "title": "国内电商承压，即时零售仍在扩张",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "categories": [
        "中国电商",
        "中国即时零售",
        "国际电商",
        "全球批发"
      ],
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        {
          "name": "2025六月季",
          "values": [
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        },
        {
          "name": "2026六月季",
          "values": [
            110.9,
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            13.906
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cloud",
      "title": "云与算力收入增长，利润率也在改善",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "categories": [
        "2025六月季",
        "2026六月季"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "云与算力收入",
          "values": [
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        },
        {
          "name": "分部调整后EBITA",
          "values": [
            2.419,
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          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "segments",
      "title": "云盈利尚不足以覆盖AI应用投入",
      "type": "waterfall",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "steps": [
        {
          "label": "电商EBITA",
          "value": 39.749,
          "total": true
        },
        {
          "label": "云与算力",
          "value": 5.628,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "AI实验室及应用",
          "value": -13.861,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "其他业务",
          "value": -3.343,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "未分配及抵销",
          "value": -0.844,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "合并调整后EBITA",
          "value": 27.329,
          "total": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "quality",
      "title": "调整后EBITA到营业利润之间的成本",
      "type": "waterfall",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "steps": [
        {
          "label": "调整后EBITA",
          "value": 27.329,
          "total": true
        },
        {
          "label": "非现金股权激励",
          "value": -2.962,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "无形资产摊销",
          "value": -0.665,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "商誉及其他",
          "value": -8.541,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "营业利润",
          "value": 15.161,
          "total": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cash",
      "title": "经营回款改善，资本开支增长更快",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "categories": [
        "经营现金流",
        "资本开支",
        "公司FCF"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "2025六月季",
          "values": [
            20.672,
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          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "2026六月季",
          "values": [
            22.945,
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          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cash-quality",
      "title": "公司自由现金流口径可以逐项复算",
      "type": "waterfall",
      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
      "steps": [
        {
          "label": "经营现金流",
          "value": 22.945,
          "total": true
        },
        {
          "label": "指定范围PPE现金购置",
          "value": -67.66,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "买家保障金变化",
          "value": 0.045,
          "total": false
        },
        {
          "label": "公司FCF",
          "value": -44.67,
          "total": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "eps",
      "title": "港股每股盈利与ADS每股盈利不能混用",
      "type": "bars",
      "unit": "人民币 / 普通股",
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        "2026六月季"
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      "id": "ai",
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      "unit": "十亿元人民币",
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      ]
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  "symbol": "9988.HK",
  "market": "hk",
  "currencyLabel": "港元",
  "asOf": "2026-11-06",
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